New Taipei Mayor 2026: Lee Shu-chuan vs Su Chiao-hui
With incumbent Mayor Hou Yu-ih (KMT) constitutionally term-limited after eight years, the election for New Taipei City (新北市) is Taiwan's largest open-seat prize. Three candidates are certified, headlined by lawmaker Su Chiao-hui (DPP, No. 1) and master civil engineer Lee Shu-chuan (KMT, No. 3).
InfoMiner measures online discussion, not voting intention. Figures and qualitative analytics on this site reflect public digital conversation volume, semantic sentiment scores, and media reporting intensity. Nothing published here represents an election forecast or projection.
1. Certified Candidates & Symmetrical Profiles
Candidates are presented in the order of official ballot lots drawn on October 27, 2026 (PTS News). The two major-party nominees are evaluated with identical standard analytical dimensions:
Su Chiao-hui
Background & Career
Three-term Legislator for New Taipei's 5th District (Shulin, Yingge, Xinzhuang; 9th–11th Legislative Yuan). Former practicing attorney, children's animation producer, and educational foundation director; LL.M. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; daughter of former Premier Su Tseng-chang (Taipei County Magistrate 1997–2004).
Core Campaign Platform
- "New Taipei Leap" Metropolitan Plan: Accelerated completion of the Sanying Line and Wanda-Zhonghe MRT corridors to knit together regional transit.
- Green Tech & Cultural Corridors: Upgrading industrial zones along the Dahan River into low-carbon AI tech campuses; modernizing Yingge ceramic arts into a global creative hub.
- Universal Childcare & Family Welfare: Expanding municipal daycare centers, boosting maternal allowances, and providing flexible after-school enrichment programs.
- Suburban-Urban Medical Equity: Bolstering emergency response fleets and medical resource networks for remote coastal and mountain townships.
Electoral Strengths & Base
Extensive ten-year legislative record delivering local infrastructure in southern New Taipei, high favorability among female voters and working parents, unified DPP municipal machinery, and lingering voter nostalgia for former Taipei County governance.
Lee Shu-chuan
Background & Career
Master civil engineer known nationwide as "Iron Hammer" (鐵鎚). Former Deputy Mayor of Taipei City (resigned March 2026 to campaign); previously served as Deputy Mayor of New Taipei (under Eric Chu and Hou Yu-ih), Deputy Mayor of Kaohsiung (under Han Kuo-yu), and Secretary-General of the Executive Yuan.
Core Campaign Platform
- "New Taipei Twin Domes" Megaproject: Redeveloping Banqiao Second Stadium into a cutting-edge covered sports and concert dome complex to spur commercial revitalisation.
- Infrastructure Mastery & Transit: Fast-tracking seismic retrofits on aging overpasses; completing the Circular MRT reconstruction; expanding Highway 64/65 interchange capacity.
- Smart Flood Mitigation: Upgrading pumping stations along the Xindian and Dahan rivers; deploying AI stormwater monitoring to combat typhoons.
- Taipei-New Taipei Co-Governance: Partnering with Chiang Wan-an's Taipei administration for unified public transit ticket integration and emergency dispatch protocols.
Electoral Strengths & Base
Unrivaled reputation for hands-on engineering execution and public works competency; cross-party professional respect; full endorsements from Hou Yu-ih and Eric Chu; deep trust among blue-collar workers and traditional civil servants.
Independent civic activist and candidate campaigning on grassroots civic oversight, community welfare transparency, and political accountability outside major party alliances.
2. Key Municipal Policy Battlegrounds
The Banqiao "Twin Domes" Debate
Lee proposes transforming the Banqiao Second Stadium into a modern covered arena ("New Taipei Twin Domes") to anchor economic growth. Su Chiao-hui questions the financial self-sufficiency and severe Banqiao traffic bottlenecks, advocating instead for neighborhood sports centers and distributed community open spaces.
Metropolitan Transit & Highway Congestion
With over 600,000 residents commuting daily into Taipei, transit capacity is vital. Key issues include repairing earthquake damage on the Circular Line, advancing the Sanying Line to Linkou and Taoyuan, and relieving gridlock on Provincial Highway 64/65 and cross-river bridge choke points.
Urban-Suburban Equity & Healthcare Disparity
New Taipei spans 29 diverse districts. Inner urban cores enjoy abundant hospital facilities and rapid transit, while outer coastal (Gongliao, Wanli) and mountainous (Wulai, Pinglin) communities face severe healthcare shortages and aging populations that require mobile clinics and emergency tele-medicine.
Post-Hou Political Succession
The KMT has controlled New Taipei (and former Taipei County) since 2005 (Eric Chu 2010–2018, Hou Yu-ih 2018–2026). The election tests whether Lee can sustain this 16-year fortress of Blue governance or whether Su can leverage her family legacy to reclaim the municipality for the DPP.
3. Published Opinion Polls with Statutory Disclosures
In accordance with Article 53 of Taiwan's Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, published opinion surveys disclose fieldwork dates, executing agencies, commissioning organizations, sampling methods, sample sizes, and margins of error:
| Fieldwork Dates | Executing Research Entity | Commissioning Organization | Methodology, Sample & Margin | Reported Results | Verified Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct 6–8, 2026 Released Oct 13 |
Beacon Market Research Lead analyst: Tai Li-an |
Taipei Trust in Democracy Association (信民協會) | Dual-frame landline & mobile random sample; registered New Taipei residents aged 20+; n=1,073; ±3.0% (95% CI) |
Su Chiao-hui 43.1% Lee Shu-chuan 30.0% |
TVBS Report · poll-tw.com |
|
Sep 28–Oct 3, 2026 Released Oct 15 |
Pearson Data (皮爾森數據) Lead: Gwonews |
Gwonews (鉅聞天下) | Online opt-in panel, stratified demographic sampling; New Taipei internet users aged 20+; n=1,066; ±3.00% (95% CI) |
Lee Shu-chuan 45.74% Su Chiao-hui 45.18% |
SETN News |
4. Online Discussion Metrics & InfoMiner Analytics
How InfoMiner Analyzes New Taipei's Digital Battle
InfoMiner's big data engine indexes social media discussions, news comment threads, and forum debates across New Taipei's 29 districts. We compute Share of Voice (SOV%) and Net Sentiment Scores without expressing editorial bias or predicting election day outcomes.
For real-time daily sentiment curves, mention breakdowns, and topic cluster semantics in Chinese, visit our dedicated candidate profiles and comparison war rooms.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When is voting day for the New Taipei mayoral election?
Voting takes place on Saturday, November 28, 2026, from 08:00 to 16:00 (Taipei time). Registered voters will elect their Mayor, City Councilors, District Chiefs (Borough Chiefs), and vote on National Referendum No. 22.
Who are the certified candidates on the New Taipei ballot?
Three candidates are certified: Su Chiao-hui (No. 1, DPP), Su Hui-huang (No. 2, Independent), and Lee Shu-chuan (No. 3, KMT).
Why is New Taipei considered the largest battleground in Taiwan?
With over 4.04 million residents and approximately 3.35 million eligible voters, New Taipei accounts for roughly one-sixth of Taiwan's total electorate—making it the single largest electoral jurisdiction in the nation.